I think it is a roll of the dice. Analyzing the impact of tariffs is quite complex, as multiple economic, social, and diplomatic considerations must be considered.

Regarding whether tariffs help or hurt the economy overall:

The effects of tariffs are typically mixed and depend on many factors. In the short term, tariffs can protect domestic industries by making imports more expensive, potentially preserving some manufacturing jobs. However, they also typically raise prices for consumers and businesses that rely on imported goods or materials, which can reduce purchasing power and increase production costs.

For U.S. manufacturing and jobs:

Protected industries may see job retention or growth.
However, industries that rely on imported inputs face higher costs.
Retaliatory tariffs from other countries can harm U.S. exporters.
The net effect on jobs is often negligible than anticipated, as some jobs are protected while others in different sectors may be lost.

Regarding recession and government debt:

Tariffs generate government revenue, typically a small portion of overall federal revenue.
They're generally not an effective tool for debt restructuring.
Broad tariffs can contribute to economic slowdowns if they significantly disrupt supply chains or trigger trade wars. However, whether they cause recessions depends on their scope and the broader economic context.

On international diplomacy:

Tariffs can strain relationships with trading partners
They may be used as leverage in negotiations but often come with diplomatic costs
Trade relationships are interconnected with other aspects of international cooperation

Economic research suggests that while targeted tariffs can help specific industries, broad tariffs often create more economic costs than benefits in the aggregate. The most efficient outcomes typically come from the strategic use of trade policy in conjunction with other domestic policies like worker retraining, education, and infrastructure investment.

Tariffs: Good or Bad?